This is what I'm talking about. You have to be very wary of what you read.
A blogger (with an agenda) reports in the headline that the Catholic Church in Vermont has lost one fifth of its membership since Benedict XVI ascended to the Papacy. The analysis in the first sentence is that "This is bad news for Vermont's Roman Catholic Church."
The technique is common. A statement is made to the effect that two events took place or that two conditions exist, which might or might not be related to each other, with the intent of infering that one caused the other when there is in fact, no proof of causation. Stating that two events took place, one right after the other, at best shows correlation, but it does not show causation.
100% of people who drink orange juice will die.
Mark Twain must be rolling over in his grave.
Another flim-flam job that we are supposed to fall for is the "That is consistent with what we would expect to see" technique. We are told of a particular condition, and then some expert says that this condition is consistent with what we would expect to see if (INSERT AGENDA HERE) were true.
"More whales have been found washing up on beaches throughout the world. This is consistent with what we would expect to see during periods of intense global warming."
I stopped watching the TV channel on which I heard this statement, not because of its social or environmental positions but becasue this type of mind game is simply dishonest. Could it be that whales are making a comeback and that the old ones are actually dying and washing up once in a while? Nah!
Regarding the net loss of Catholics in Vermont, what the blogger does not report is that Vermont's population rose 2.1% from 2000 to 2009 while the population of the US as a whole rose 9.1% during the same time period. (1) Could it be that Catholics are simply moving away? Nah!
Whenever someone tries to infer causation without proof, more likely than not the root cause of both conditions is the same. With regards to the blogger's inference that Catholics in Vermont are leaving the Church as a result it's teachings on sexuality brought about by the ascension of Benedict XVI to the papacy, I would like to suggest what one common root cause might be.
Is it possible that the loss of Catholics in Vermont as well as the rise of a concervative theologian to the Papacy are both a reaction of the Holy Spirit to rampant sexual promiscuity, of which both Vermont's same sex marriage law and the blogger's website are symptomatic? Nah!
Personally, I think the Catholics from Vermont are all moving to Georgia!
-Tim-
(1) US Census Bureau, State and County QuickFacts, Vermont, http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/50000.html